Why is This Man Smiling? Gov. Bill Richardson Gets in the Game

WASHINGTON, DC – The biggest smile on Tavis Smiley's stage didn't come from the host or Democratic frontrunner Sen. Hillary Clinton. No. The biggest glow came from Gov. Bill Richardson, whose antiwar platform – backed by his foreign policy experience – seems to be resonating with at least a few likely Democratic voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and California. Although he's barely into double digits, Richardson's hockey stick-like trend in Iowa and New Hampshire runs counter to both Obama and Edwards – and in Iowa to Clinton as well. And, more interestingly to all three in California.

Of course Gov. Richardson's supporters need to be realistic, his national numbers are flatter than a Waffle House pancake. But, Hillary Clinton's momentum in racking up endorsements is not translating into general election support in bellweather states such as Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, and New Mexico. If Clinton can't pull ahead in the upper Red States, she can't win a general election. For many Democrats, Clinton's bankability in the general election is becoming a very real concern.

If Dems become disenchanted with the Senator's prospects for winning the general election, and Al Gore doesn't step in, its likely that Gov. Richardson may emerge as a bona fide contender. And, as the Chicago Tribune reports, longshots haven't always lost.

Buffett Buffs the Democratic Brand: $1 Million and an Attempt to Give Hillary The Oracle's Shine

NEW YORK – The "Oracle of Omaha" has spoken. Raising over $1 million in one night for Sen. Hillary Clinton, Warren Buffett buffed the Democratic brand by making it okay to be rich – and caring. In publicizing the fact that his effective tax rate is almost half that of his receptionist, Buffett brought home the dirty little secret of the post-new economy, the upper crust has never been more advantaged. By exclaiming, "If you're in the luckiest 1 percent of humanity, you owe it to the rest of humanity to think about the other 99 percent,'' Buffett is daring his fellow billionaires to have a conscience – and to buy into both the Democratic and the Hillary brands.

Will Buffett's support buff Senator Clinton's campaign's campaign? Perhaps. Buffett is, perhaps, the keenest stock picker in history. So, it is likely that some folks will regard his endorsement as a profound show of support from the mandarin of American business. In a general election, this might help Senator Clinton sway moderate Republicans and independent voters. However, this very public suport from such a powerful business leader might also play against Senator Clinton in the Democratic primaries – and it might lift Senator Edwards' "people versus the powerful" trope to the level of policy by demonstrating the "why" behind his efforts.

Body Blow to the Republican Brand: Bloomberg Bumps GOP

NEW YORK – In what may portend an indpendent bid for the presidency, billionaire Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York dropped his Republican Party affiliation and declared, "Non-partisan government is working in New York."

The Brandwagon isn't shocked. Rumors of a potential Bloomberg presidential campaign have circulated for months. And, with independent voters not entirely satisfied with either Democratic frontrunner Sen. Hillary Clinton or Republican Rudy Guiliani, an indpendent bid by Bloomberg might not be a completely unreasonable quest. With ten-figure personal fortune at his disposal– and no need to waste any of it in a messy primary battle, a Bloomberg bid might be more viable than most of the current field.

Bloomberg's challenge as an independent presidential candidate – aside from getting on the ballot in all fifty states – would like be convincing in the battleground states that, despite his wealth, his education, and his brahmin bearing, that he "feels their pain." Yes, Bloomberg takes the subway to work, but that's because he believes its a faster route to City Hall from his Upper East Side town home, not because he can't afford the gas.

From our perspective, the bigger story has nothing to do with Bloomberg. In bouncing the Republican brand, Bloomberg is effectively saying to Republican moderates that they home might exist outside the shrinking tent of the GOP.

The Other Ron Rides the Retro-Con Net Wave

ARLINGTON, VA – Presidential candidate Ron Paul (R-TX) may not score high in the national polls, but he's quickly becoming the retro-con version of Howard Dean. Smart, practical, and well-spoken, Rep. Paul has taken the conservative netroots by storm.

Of course, Paul and Gov. Dean have a lot in common, including careers as practicing physicians – and the kind of no-holds-barred independence that ruffles the feathers of their repsective party establishments. Their positions in opposing unfettered "free trade" and the Iraq war, while crusading for fiscal discipline, put them squarely at odds with the general consensus of their parties during each of their respective election cycles. But the Brandwagon believes something bigger is at work.

Beyond Paul and Dean's policy positions, quick wits, and prominent embrace of new media, their "genuine" public personas that cast them with the legitimacy needed to acquire younger and more independently-minded voters – in addition to their party's extremes.

So what? Presidential elections are decided in the middle, not on the fringes. True. And we're not saying that Rep. Paul has any chance of winning the Republican nomination. However, in the age of YouTube, high-traffic blogs, podcasts, and mobile messaging, the sincerity of Paul's approach has the potential to affect how the public perceives the each party's front-runners.

If the general election will be won in "the center," both parties would be well-advised to consider how to appeal more strongly to those with a strong "independent" streak. Fair trade, fiscal discipline, and an exit strategy to the war in Iraq – mixed with a more sincere, "unscripted" approach to campaigning – might help candidates in either party catch the crest of the wave.

Jump Right In –– The Water's Fine: Sen. Fred Thompson Dips in His Toes

NEW YORK – Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) says he's just testing the waters. But, his coy Leno appearance and surging poll numbers point to his potential as the new Republican showrunner. The Brandwagon believes that his sleepy-eyed Southern charm, deep voice, steady political opines – and burgeoning Christian Right props – mark him as the new man to beat in 2008. Perhaps this is why supra-conservative pundit George F. Will decided to take a preemptive first strike on the patriarchal former U.S. Attorney/Watergate Co-Counsel/Lobbyist/Actor/U.S. Senator in his weekly Newsweek intelli-screed.

The wrath of Will is an important nuance for American political junkies. Conservatives are frustrated Bush's management of the Republican Party. As the early days of tax cuts gave way to unfettered earmarks, unmanageable foreign conflict, and nationa erosion of public confidence in the Republican Party's ability to perform, Conservatives hanker for the halcyon days of Ronald Wilson Reagan. Is Sen. Thompson the "Papa Bear" that Conservatives crave? Maybe.

However, Sen. Thompson faces some serious challenges in his quest for the world's most exclusive address. First, the front-loaded primaries require the quick development of comprehensive political infrastructures in very expensive states. Second, a near-term decision by the potential candiate to stake his claim and get in the race in order to build a national team. And finally, the Thompson "campaign" will need to define the good senator's "brand" with all deliberate speed. While Sen. Thompson is almost always referred to as "Law and Order actor Fred Thompson," Reagan campaigned as the Governor of California. Sen. Thompson needs to take some advice from the Great Communicator, set the T.V. persona aside and re-emphasize his fourteen years of public service, and make a concerted effort to play down his better-than-Reagan Hollywood résumé.