Comeback Kid? John Edwards Starts Singing a Populist Tune

NEW YORK – After spending much of the year losing the battle for press time – and poll position – to Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Senator John Edwards is finally starting shine. With Time's poll numbers showing an 8-point lead over Clinton, his campaign is hoping that decisive victory in Iowa will propel Edwards into the heat of the spotlight and an acceptance speech in Denver.

The key to Edwards' potentially successful re-brand? His War on Poverty Redux? The "People Versus the Powerful" rhetorical mantra? His terrific recasting of the Fair Trade trope as "Smart Trade"? All of the above? We think not. We think Edward's re-brand is far less about substance than it is about a well-articulated repositioning and the further development of a powerful, unrelenting political voice.

The gloves are off and Edward's appears to be taking a page out of the Bulworth pagebook – and finally "telling it like it is." Clearly, this is resonating with Iowa's Democratic voters, who are craving the fiery "throw the bums out" rhetoric that Edward's and his wife Elizabeth are no longer loathe to express. And, in finally letting go of the prepackaged "presidential" posturing and returning to the innate passion that characterizes a man – and a family – whose background, obstacles, tragedies, and personal triumphs draw true empathy from a Democratic electorate comprised of working people – not the New York/Washington/Hollywood élites who tend to dominate the national Democratic discourse.

Indeed, the Time poll reveals that Edwards leads Sen. Clinton in the "likability" category by a mere margin of 32 to 12 – and the "best understands the concerns of people like yourself" section 30-23. At the same time, Edwards, who always held strong margins of victory in hypothetical match-ups with Republicans, is starting to solidify those leads with Rasmussen showing Edwards beating Guiliani 49 to 41 and Romney 45 to 38, dominating Sen. Thompson 49 to 35, and crushing McCain 52 to 36.

While Sen. Obama maintains similar leads, Rasmussen shows Sen. Clinton losing to Guiliani 44 to 47, barely edging McCain 48 to 46 and Thompson 48 to 44. Sen. Clinton's only margin of victory, outside of the margin of error, is her commanding lead over Gov. Mitt Romney 51 to 40. When combined with Sen. Clinton's 49 percent "unfavorable" ratings might be wonder if Hillary is the best person to not only ensure Democratic occupation of White House, but also maintain or expand Democratic control of Congress. Could Edward's be this person? The jury is still out, but at least Edwards is finally beginning to capture the attention and imagination of Iowa's Democratic some four months before they caucus. And some positive attention from the national press in process.

As the Washington Post reports:

Edwards is casting himself as the candidate of rural voters, someone who understands the plight and values of family farmers (especially powerful in Iowa) and who could do in a general election what he argues Clinton and Obama could not: attract culturally conservative voters in states such as Virginia, voters who consider gun ownership an important right and aren't thrown by his drawl.

"I think this Southern Baptist has a better chance of being elected pope than Hillary Clinton does of being elected president in a general election," quipped David "Mudcat" Saunders, a Democratic strategist in Virginia who is advising Edwards and who helped get Mark R. Warner elected governor and James Webb elected to the Senate in the state.

"Rural America is pivotal. It's where the battleground is going to be, and rural America is saying, 'To hell with the Republicans,' " Saunders said. "But you've got to have the right candidate, one who can get through to the culture."

If Saunders is correct, Edwards might be the ideal Democratic opponent to Sen. Fred Thompson: a young, homespun, but wealthy relative outsider, battle tested in fight for the people against the powerful – and, ultimately, an "authentic" voice for the millions whose fortunes did not multiply in almost two decades of economic expansion. In increasingly tough times, populist appeal might be just that – appealing. And in the Purple States, times are truly tough. Here, Edwards might be one of the few candidates, in either party, capable of culling voters from the other side.

If Democrats are willing to look who can win – with coattails – Edwards might well be "The Comeback Kid" of 2008.

Game on! Sen. Thompson Finally Steps up to the Plate

NASHVILLE – For Democrats, Fred Thompson might just end up being be the man to beat. His "brand" is clear and uncomplicated. Whether you describe him as "Southern-Fried Reagan" or "Ben Cartwright," Sen. Thompson presents that patriarchal archetype that is foundational to American perceptions of the idyllic Republican candidate: conservative, plain-spoken, tough, and commanding. And a real contrast to the Democratic field.

While Guiliani and Romney compete with each other to wear the crown of "authentically conservative," Sen. Thompson simply strides to the podium and smiles. And it's a knowing smile, because Thompson understands that in the moral high ground of Republican Red America neither Guiliani nor Romney can match the "true authenticity" of his deep-timbered Southern drawl.

At the same time, Sen. Thompson's partisanship has, for decades, been tempered by a gentlemanly demeanor and a general willingness to "cross the aisle," when necessary. His is a career built on being "consumable" – firm, yet comforting. And "Southern-Fried Reagan" is the kind of comfort food that Red County America is craving in a time of tremendous social, economic, and moral insecurity.

Sen. Thompson's candidacy should make Democrats VERY concerned about who will best match the Republicans in both the presidential election – and in 2008's congressional races. Sen. Thompson could have VERY long coattails, particularly in places like Indiana, Ohio, Montana, and North Carolina, where Democratic success in 2006 came about, in part, by running candidates whose views, and "brands," ran far to the right of Blue State norms. For Democrats, Thompson's candidacy is a real wake-up call. He might not be the strongest Republican candidate in decades, but he's got a powerful persona, some serious height advantage, and the big dog swagger that consistently wins over the voters in Purple State America.

While it's true that Sen. Thompson has lost a little bit of ground since July, being late to the party didn't stop Reagan in 1980. That said, he's got to run hard – fast. Elections are won on the ground. If Sen. Thompson wants to win the presidency, he needs to win the Republican nomination and that means he'll need to a lot of dedicated supporters to pound the pavement from September 4 to February 5.

Game on.

If Angels Were to Govern Men, There Would Be No Karl Rove

WASHINGTON – "Bush's Brain." "The Architect." "The Strategist." Karl Rove has accumulated quite a few nicknames in his four decades as a Republican political operative. Known as a dirty-trickster since his college days, Rove's take-no-prisoners campaign style became the tactical linchpin in the decade-long Republican realignment of Texas – and each of the last four national elections.

Of course, Rove didn't invent hardball politics. He simply pushed the envelope further than his Republican predecessors might have thought possible. And most importantly, Rove reveled in his association with what an earlier generation might have deemed beyond the pale.

Rove relished his role as a cherubic bad boy. With each of his successes, he grew giddier. Much like a ten-year-old frying ants with a magnifying glass, Rove seemed to delight in the gruesome nature of his opponents' particular destruction, without either the wit or contrition of the late, archetypal dirty-trickster, Lee Atwater.

To many, Rove was overrated.

To us, Rove was a foil. He was "bad cop" to George W. Bush's "good cop." By goading the press into positioning Rove as a smirking version of "The Dark Lord," Rove successfully deflected attribution of his tactics to his clients – who where, after all, the ultimate "deciders" in each of Rove's political campaigns. Rove, his minions, and his imitators may have run roughshod over our electoral system. Rove may have tainted his profession, that of the paid political consultant, for generations to come. But, it was those who paid for his services who ought to be held accountable. For it is they who have reaped this acrid crop.

In the end, history may reduce Mr. Rove's importance to an asterisk. He was not the architect of the Republicans' Southern Strategy that not only elected Richard Nixon, but forged a complete, and some may deem, permanent, political realignment of the South. Rove did not "strategerize" landslide victories for George W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004 as Ed Rollins did for Ronald Reagan in 1984 or as Bob Teeter and Lee Atwater did for George H.W. Bush in 1988 – under far harsher political climates. No, Rove's lasting mark will likely be the level of toxicity that currently corrodes the political profession – and American politics as a global brand. And, unlike the toxicity of his predecessors, we are deeply concerned that this Rovian toxicity is radioactive, with a half-life destined to last for countless generations.

Can our political culture "re-brand" itself? Yes. But, we must be vigilant in our expectations. We must demand true accountability from our leaders, while carefully filtering out the nonsensical jabs foisted upon us those who seek political advantage through the politics of personal destruction and not the critical engagement of political ideals. Is this overly altruistic? Absolutely. But, our nation was founded by pragmatic visionaries, not cynics. Our Founders understood history and human and political nature with tremendous depth – which is precisely the reason that our power is divided into three distinct branches and further subdivided by the people who hold office within those branches.

As James Madison writes in The Federalist, Number 51:

But the great security against a gradual concentration of the several powers in the same department, consists in giving to those who administer each department the necessary constitutional means and personal motives to resist encroachments of the others. The provision for defense must in this, as in all other cases, be made commensurate to the danger of attack. Ambition must be made to counteract ambition. The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place. It may be a reflection on human nature, that such devices should be necessary to control the abuses of government. But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions.

Perhaps, "If angels were to govern men," they might ensure that those who help to elect them rise to a similar standard of greatness. Honorable leadership is possible. But, first we must be willing to honor the process.

We can only pray that Mr. Rove, and his cynical, kindred spirits across the globe, will simply huff, take their marbles, and go home when they realize that the market for their brand of politics has shriveled in the face of true political debate.

At the very least, a little Lee Atwater-style repentance from Rove and his ilk might take us one step closer to a more idyllic political landscape. Just a hope.

(Editor's note: For Zoë. Happy Anniversary.)

The Triumph of Style Over Substance: Tommy Thompson Might Be Done Kissin' Babies

AMES, IA – On the eve of the Iowa Straw Poll, the Washington Post reports that Wisconsin's innovative former Governor, Tommy Thompson, may have had his fill of presidential politicking. Speaking to the Post, Gov. Thompson declares that the press – and, by default, the voters – "Don't look at the resume....They're not looking at who is the most qualified to be president. They look at who's got the best looks, the best smile, the most money and is doing well in the polls." True. Presidential elections have featured a triumph of style over substance repeatedly. And, unfortunately, this is the nature of the beast.

The Brandwagon admires Thompson's pluck, both in running for president in the first place – and in highlighting the ways in which the electronic media has reduced what should be truly substantive policy debates into tidy sound bites, flourishes of salacious rhetorical contortionism, and momentary flashes of belt buckles, boots, cloisonné American flags, and incandescent smiles.

However, and this is a big "however," Governor Thompson is about as far from being a political neophyte as Vice President Cheney is from being the world's penultimate open consensus builder. With four decades of public life, including almost 35 years as an elected official – and an unprecedented four consecutive terms as the Republican governor of an ostensibly Democratic state, one would think that Thompson would know just a little about whys and wherefores of American politics. To us, this is particularly frustrating. After seriously considering, what probably would have been very competitive presidential runs in 1996 and 2000, Thompson chose announce his candidacy for the least substantive, most expensive, most drawn-out, presidential campaign in U.S. history, on the April Fool's Day 2007 Edition of ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulos. Huh? Did someone forget to say "April Fool's?" Come on.

To be clear, we are not in the business of beating a good man when he is down, but Gov. Thompson has, generally, been considered one of the most innovative Republican politicians in generations. Regardless of our own political predilections, most political professionals would have to agree that Thompson was a fairly committed reformer, a policy initiator, and not simply a pol. And this is where we believe Thompson's campaign was wasted. On almost every level, Thompson's campaign represented a "Failure to communicate." And, in American presidential politics, how one communicates is far more important than what one communicates. Gov. Thompson's defining fault was his inability to craft a powerful political brand grounded in his personal truth.

Perhaps the best example of this lives on his website. Here, Gov. Thompson is framed as a "Reliable Conservative," with "Common Sense Solutions" with the entirety of, what we would call, his "brand story" centered on a seemingly chronological series of past political accomplishments from a primarily pre-9/11 world. "INNOVATORS" do not live in the past. Innovators speak to the future. Gov. Thompson's website speaks the language of another candidate, living in another time, and an election whose sell-date has long since passed.

Perhaps, we might have critiqued Gov. Thompson's political brand a little sooner. Maybe his campaign would have noticed. And maybe, just maybe, Gov. Thompson would have come out swinging – and not scolding. Maybe, he would have tried a little more inspiration, and a lot less reflection. But, again, Gov. Thompson should have known better. After all, Gov. Thompson has won way more than a few elections. A little style almost always helps substance garner enough attention to attract more than a few extra votes.

TV Dinner: Chris Matthews Casts Fred Thompson as the New Ben Cartwright

WASHINGTON – In branding Sen. Fred Thompson as the next Ben Cartwright, Chris Matthews raises an interesting question. Is an increasingly sullen Republican Party, and maybe America, in dire need of good, old-fashioned comfort food?

We suggest readers have a look at TVLand.com's description of Cartwright:

Righteous and strong, Ponderosa patriarch Ben Cartwright is a range-riding pillar of justice. Owning the largest ranch in Nevada makes Ben Cartwright a hugely wealthy man. Never forgetting his humble roots Ben Cartwright is often found offering a helping hand to neighbors as well as strangers in times of need.

Hmmmmmmm.

Looking at Thompson's surging poll numbers – particularly in South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada – we're thinking that Matthews' comparison hits the mark. As the only Reaganesque archetype considering the GOP nod, Sen. Thompson is nearly picture-perfect casting for Bonanza Redux. A top-ten show for 10 of its 14 seasons – and Number One during four of America's most tumultuous years, 1964-1967, Bonanza hearkened Americans back to "simpler times," while simultaneously touching a series of controversial issues ranging from racism to domestic violence. If Ben Cartwright's portrayer, Lorne Greene, had not been a Canadian, he might have well have been 1968's Fred Thompson – in either party.

At the same time, Sen. Thompson's campaign needs to carefully avoid this comparison. If his rivals portray him as a "TV Dinner," Thompson needs to reach beyond the Southern-Fried Reagan card, and emphasize his 14 years of public service – and devotion to replenishing American strength. All told, Sen. Thompson's brand of "Law and Order" might just become "Bonanza" to a Republican Party desperately in need of a fresh "patriarch."

For Democrats, a Republican Party united under Sen. Thompson will present a real challenge. America is a nation addicted to comfort food. If Thompson looks like the Republican nominee, Democrats might have to apply a new test to their candidates and ask which one won't make Middle America feel like they have a choice between a piping hot TV dinner or a dollop of cold, steamed spinach.

Ouch! Bloomberg Brand Gets 'Bump'd'

NEW YORK – Mayor Michael Bloomberg might need a CAT scan after hitting one behemoth of a speed bump placed unceremoniously outside his 79th Street mansion for the past five weeks. With a team of reporters monitoring his every move – probably in anticipation of a potential run for president – Bloomberg unwittingly skewered both his chances of pushing through his much-beloved plan for instituting congestion pricing to curb Manhattan's gridlocked streets AND his 'Regular Rich Guy' brand.

In pulling the first big-time 'gotcha' of the 2008 campaign (aside from the Clinton/Edwards open mike moment), Michael M. Grynbaum's crisply-written Times front pager, "A Mayor Who Takes the Subway — by Way of S.U.V." features the above photo of the “MetroCard mayor" walking briskly to one of two gleaming, black Chevrolet Suburbans, presumably waiting to drive the mayor to a subway station some twenty blocks from his Upper East Side home to catch an express train to City Hall. Ashton Kutcher could not have designed a better episode of "Punk'd" than this political moment. Simultaneously shredding the Bloomberg brand's greenish tint - and his "Regular Subway Joe" political visage – this episode is likely to linger in the minds of New Yorkers long enough to bump his brand out of contention for any post-mayoral office for a great while to come.