He's Got the Goods – But, Will They Bayh?

WASHINGTON – Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) is likely to announce his bid for the 2008 presidential nomination next week. The popular ex-governor and son of thrice-elected Indiana senator Birch Bayh, Senator Bayh is known for his starkly centrist positioning – and his "Republicrat" branding, which served him well in two terms as governor and eight years in the Senate.

Bayh's impending announcement has been anticipated for some time. He's a strong fundraiser, with tremendous geographic diversity in his contributor base. And his super-centrist street cred should help him garner significant media attention, especially with the success of conservative Democrats this November becoming the vogue.

What Bayh lacks, in the moment, is national recognition – and a passionate base of Democratic primary supporters – and a group that rarely shows a great deal of love to true centrists. While Bayh already differentiates himself through his conservative visage, he might want to amplify his "fair" stance on trade in order to rally both the Democratic primary base and the independent-minded Dems whose communities have paid the price for post-NAFTA, post-MFN globalization.

However, the Political Brandwagon has a deeper question. Why are the super-centrists Bayh and Tom Vilsack (D-IA) rushing to challenge fellow centrist, and theoretical front-runner, Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)? Could the cost of Clinton's "cakewalk" reelection campaign have donors some major donors seeking other options? Or, does the Democratic establishment have deeper reservations abou the power of Clinton to win electoral votes between the coasts?

Potluck: Vilsack Spins a Homespun Brand – But, Where's the Beef?

MOUNT PLEASANT, Iowa – Governor Tom Vilsack (D-Iowa) became the first pol to pony up to the 2008 Presidential Potluck. Unfortunately, we can't make out what dish he brought. The two-term governor is relatively well-liked in his home state, enjoying a 58 percent approval rating in Survey USA's most recent poll. But the numbers of the past year are hardly stratospheric in comparison with his gubernatorial cohort. In fact, Vilsack ranks 24th in the November 20th edition, far behind popular Red State Democratic governors such as Wyoming's Dave Freudenthal, Oklahoma's Brad Henry, Arizona's Janet Napolitano, Montana's Brian Schweitzer, and potential primary rival Bill Richardson of New Mexico.

Clearly, Vilsack has a great deal of work to do in his home state, before he can even consider becoming a serious contender in Nevada, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.

From a branding perspective, Vilsack's team needs to build a strategy that defines who he is, what he's planning to do, how he's different, and why this should matter to Democratic primary voters. His announcement speech offered us no clue beyond the an amorphous trope about "The courage to create change," a few ethanol-tinged nods to the technology of energy independence, a more thoughtful brand of foreign policy – and allusions to America as the land of opportunity. As potluck dishes go, Vilsack's announcement was one of those casseroles that looks okay, but needs a few dollops of salt, pepper, and four dashes of Lawry's seasoning to make up for a lack of any identifiable meat.

If Vilsack wants to be a contender, he should make sure that his kick-off events in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Nevada are big, old-fashioned country barbecues with enough gut-busting protein to build some muscle on his campaign, enough red-hot chili to make the voters need an ice-cold brew, and enough apple pie to make supporters out of the staunchest naysayers. Potlucks that leave voters asking, "Where's the beef?" aren't going to cut it in what will certainly be a crowded Democratic picnic.

To The Brandwagon, Vilsack's inaugural website is the best metaphor for his announcement day – lots of links to Internet "communities," surrounding a blurry YouTube screenshot – and not a single issue stance to be found for miles. When two-term governors show up to a potluck, they ought to bring more than a side dish.

Robert Altman: A Shaper of The Boomer Brand

LOS ANGELES – The passing of Robert Altman will be mourned by many media professionals, particularly those whose interest in film imbued them with a taste for satire and careers with a political cant.

Altman was one of the few film directors whose work consistently crossed the intersection between popular and political culture.

Robert Altman's work chronicled the transformation of a generation – and built the foundation for a new cinematic language. Altman's films may not have been fully accessible for mass audiences, but his influence still reverberates across a spectrum of media ranging from network television to YouTube. He will be missed.

Bush's Blues: 'The Horror. The Horror.'

HANOI – It's been a rough couple of weeks for the President. So, who can blame Mr. Bush, if the latest in traditional Vietnamese silkwear doesn't strike his personal fancy – especially during a week in which his job approval numbers dropped back into the low 30s; his part-time advisor, Henry Kissinger, now claims that victory in Iraq is no longer possible; and Democrats are speaking about America's Iraq policy through the lexicon of welfare reform. The Brandwagon is wondering if April 1st came early. "The horror. The horror."

Could Jeff Flake Be The Key to The New GOP?

WASHINGTON – In corporate America, mere rumors of a tough quarter usually lead to negative analyst reports and, often, a small wave of short-selling. A few poor quarters and, either heads start to roll, or the RFPs for consultants start zipping through cyberspace. Some Republicans have taken the Blue Wave of 2006 in stride and accepted that they are party in desperate need of a re-brand.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) seems to be leading the charge of soul-searching, readily admitting that the Republican brand is in need of some serious re-thinking. Flake, a telegenic Arizona pragmatist, has long argued that the GOP has strayed from its fiscally-conservative moorings by bringing home too much bacon -- and left the public asking, "Where's the beef?" And Flake's 60 Minutes appearance certainly rankled some feathers inside the Republican caucus, charging that the GOP took the art of earmarking to a new level during their 12 years as the House majority.

Clearly, Flake is a savvy politician. In publicly sensing the winds of voter discontent in the months prior to the election, Flake cast himself as a crusading outsider, ready, willing, and able to take on a moribund Washington power structure, regardless of party affiliation. This is a message that works. Flake won reelection with over 74 percent of the vote – a higher margin than any Arizona incumbent. Could Flake be positioning himself as the next McCain? Could Flake be helping to frame the Republicans in 2008 as the party of "Reason and Responsibility" rather than 1999-2006's "Faith and Strength"?

Blue November: Bush Rebrands as 'The Uniter,' Dons French Blue in Oval Office Tête à Tête with Dems

The Big Blue Wave

WASHINGTON – Who would have thunk it? A Big Blue wave finally came crashing over Capitol Hill November 8th with the Democrats sweeping into the House with by margin of at least 30 seats and capturing the Senate with pick-ups in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Montana (?)! As predicted, many Democratic pick-ups in both houses came from surprisingly conservative candidates. Slate's calling 'em them the "Lou Dobbs Democrats;" CNN's John King brands them "Conservatives;" and The New York Times' Carl Hulse calls the Dems' 110th Freshman class a "challenge". Even Rush Limbaugh is citing crew-cutted Democratic icon, Senator-elect Jon Tester (D-MT) as an exemplar of conservatism's triumphal march.

At The Brandwagon, we've got a different take. Americans got tired of the war, the rancor of partisan puffery, the exportation of jobs to faraway shores, and the ugliness of $2 billion in 15-second smear spots.

The new faces of the Democratic Party bring something to both the Democratic brand – and Washington itself – dignity. Certainly, no one can accuse incoming senators Tester, McCaskill, Casey, Webb, or Brown as "liberal." Neither can we label incoming representatives Shuler, Hill, or Ellsworth as overly "progressive." But, we believe they bring much more to Washington than their nominally-conservative roots. They bring something far more important – a sense of calm, reserve, and good old-fashioned middle-American humanity, an element sorely lacking from both political brands for longer than we care to remember.

Election 2006: Realignment or Not, The Parties Need a Re-Brand

NEW YORK – Two weeks ago, we vaulted past the conventional wisdom and predicted a 46-seat-high Blue wave would flood Capitol Hill. In the interim, we've probably revised our numbers to somewhere between 33 and 40.

But, overall, we're standing pretty firm, although we've got serious concerns about balloting snafus ranging from registration problems to electronic "glitches" in precincts nationwide, especially in Missouri, Florida, Indiana, and Ohio. And reports of late-night robocalls, push polls, and other forms of telephonic skulduggery might depress turn-out in tight races from CA-11 and AZ-8 to PA-6.

If the votes are counted, this could be a realigning election – and, in the aftermath, both parties will be due for a serious rebrand.

Democrats will need to demonstrate that they are as much the party of Conservative Blue Dogs as they are the home for Blue State progressives. This requires fully taking into account the political realities facing the centrist-to-conservative rural, Red State, and suburban Dems who will likely provide the largest portion of the incoming class.

The Republicans, regardless of outcome, are in need of "Brand Triage." With many Republican moderates joining the ranks of America's unemployed, the national party will lurch even further to the Right. To many conservative intellectuals, this would create the ideological purity necessary to formulate a more succinct political vision – and effect more lasting political change. An admirable spin to be sure, but ineffectual politics under the American electoral system. While we consider the ways in which the Republicans can successfully hone a more conservative brand, we suggest that the GOP looks deeply at which type of conservatism it prefers – social or fiscal. From the looks of things, it might be difficult for the two to coexist outside of the precincts painted with the brightest possible shade of Red.

Brand Realignment: Fighting for the Face of the Democratic Party

SAN FRANCISCO – The conventional wisdom presupposes that Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will become the first female Speaker of the House with the swearing in of the 110th Congress on January 3. For Democrats, particularly progressive wing of its base, this will be cause for celebration – and for the Democratic brand, a potential quandary of significant proportions. Should a Speaker Pelosi become the "Face of the Democratic Party?"

No one doubts Pelosi's tremendous skill as a politician. She's tough, telegenic, and more than willing to speak her mind. She's brought Republican-like party discipline to a divergent group of personalities, interests, and political denominations. And, as Speaker, Pelosi would, indeed, shatter yet another "marble ceiling."

The problem for Pelosi – and her closest allies – is that a Democratic victory in Election 2006 won't necessarily represent a national embrace of the party's progressive bi-coastal élites. In fact, what portends to be a "realigning election" is more than likely to be a general repudiation of the Republican brand, its presidential standard-bearer – and some really astute recruitment of Democratic challengers in nominally-red congressional districts than a general affection for the Democratic line.

This begs the question: How will Pelosi play in Vanderburgh County, Indiana, the home of rising Democratic star, Sheriff Brad Ellsworth? Will "The San Francisco Democrat" hurt the chances of Heath Shuler, the likely victor in North Carolina's 11th District, when he's forced to start campaigning for re-election on January 4?

If the Democrats have the chance to elect Nancy Pelosi to Speaker, they need to confront that always prickly issue of "brand alignment," getting an organization to "live its brand at every touchpoint." And, for the Democrats of the 110th Congress, "branding" will be one of its toughest challenges, as the threads of this new Democratic Party have not been spun from so many different spindles for at least a generation. With such diversity comes great dramatic tension. What works for the constituents of Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) might stir up a dust storm for Mr. Shuler. But, with 12 years of life in political Siberia, the Democrats have learned that it's difficult to win power without appealing to the world between the coasts.

Perhaps the Democrats will take a page out of the Shuler playbook – and embrace the common thread espoused by the Democrats of yore, including Heath's grandmother, to "Help those who cannot help themselves." From a brand perspective, such talk might best be served up by some folks with some swagger, a drawl, and an undying love for the NASCAR – more than faces from the coasts.

Pew: Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead in Competitive Districts

PRINCETON, NJ – The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press shows that the Democrats have made significant inroads into previously Republican turf.

Joe Lieberman: A Brand for All Seasons?

CONNECTICUT – Despite a 90% liberal voting record – according to Americans for Democratic Action – Joe Lieberman's the go-to guy that conservatives trot out when they're forced to name a "voice of moderation" in the Democratic Party. But, other than his support for the war in Iraq, his kiss with George W. Bush, and the vocalization of his support for reinserting Ms. Schiavo’s feeding tube, it's hard to characterize Lieberman as anything but an old-time Northeastern liberal, given his positions on taxes, spending, and other issues.

It's clear that Lieberman has the only political equivalent of a golden parachute in America. Held in close embrace by President Bush, slathered over by Fox News and worshipped by the big brains at the American Enterprise Institute, he's emerged as the perennial darling of both the neo-cons and the Republican establishment – and independently-minded Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg. After Lieberman lost to Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary this summer, RNC head Ken Mehlman promptly went on Meet the Press to embarrass the fledgling candidacy of Alan Schlesinger, the in situ Republican candidate, by announcing that he's been asked to "stay away from that one." (By whom, one might ask?)

One has to surmise that the Democratic leadership really wants Lieberman to win, given their on-again, off-again reaction towards Ned Lamont since his upset this August. The first tip-off may have been on primary night, when Mr. Lamont’s insurgent status was reinforced by the podium-flanking appearance of Reverends Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. This may have been a good move in the primary, but it was certainly not a shout-out to Connecticut’s general election moderates. The irony certainly wasn't lost on Rush Limbaugh, who gleefully posted such a photograph on his website.

It's hard to think of another politician who's mastered the art of being all things to all people. The Brandwagon sees Lieberman as truly one-of-a-kind, a brand like Wal-Mart or The Department of Homeland Security, appealing to the middle of the middle, but attracting harsh rebukes from increasingly vocal opposition on the left. If old Joe wins, both parties can claim partial victory. If he loses, he'll be a shoo-in for an important position in the Bush Administration, most likely the Homeland Security post he probably craves.

Political Brandwagon pundit Denis Riney is a Connecticut resident and a group director for a major US-based branding firm. His expert brand analysis has appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, CNN, and numerous trade publications throughout the world.

Red Taint Ensures a Blue Tint: Could the Brandwagon Effect Bathe the Map in Blue?

NEW YORK – It's been a tough year for the GOP brand. And Republican Congressmembers, especially those in the Rust Belt have a some 'splaining to do about a lot more than Iraq, Katrina, Foleygate, and Abramoff.

To the old-line conservatives, the Bush tribe isn't living up to its original “small government, low deficit, avoid foreign entanglements” political philosophy. To Christian Conservatives, the current White House is the exemplar for a litany of broken promises that extend back to the Reagan era. And Republican moderates, well, they’ve been in the wilderness for a very long time. In short, the GOP brand is starting to oxidize – and Rust Belt voters looking for some Rustoleum®. In the House, this election supposed to be close. It won’t be (unless the voting machines fail).

The Dems, whose own brand is, shall we say, under-defined, aren’t necessarily running the strongest campaign in their history. But, by keeping their national message narrow – “Iraq’s a mess. The Republican Congress is corrupt. And the Administration is incompetent. And American can’t afford to keep shipping its job over to China” – the Democrats have successfully nationalized the election. And, in avoiding a national referendum on what they would do to change things, ala the ’94 Republicans’ “Contract with America,” the Dems have allowed their candidates tailor their messages to local tastes. The Democrats’ “Big Tent” approach allows their brand the flexibility to run pro-lifers in Pennsylvania, cops in Indiana, and prosecutors in Missouri, with out saddling Red district insurgents with the “The Loony Left” labeling so prevalent on America’s talk radio.

This strategy has Blue State Republicans flummoxed and Red State Republicans stymied. In letting the social issues reflect local tastes, the Democrats are forcing the Republicans to confront substantive issues such as Iraq, competence – and, in the Rust Belt, free trade.

When districts like IN-2, NC-11, and OH-15, suddenly take on a Blue tinge, the bandwagon effect can’t be far behind – a Blue Wave we might be tempted to brand “The Revenge of the Reagan Democrats," or as The Post's E.J. Dionne writes, "The Radical Center."

That said, The Political Brandwagon is going out on a limb, two weeks before the election and declare the Republicans will need more than re-branding to retake Congress in 2008.

However, there are a few codas to the prediction illustrated below – electronic voting machines, the availability of voting machines in Democratic precincts, and the potential for organized voter supression. Therefore, The Brandwagon won’t be eating any crow, if the votes don’t get counted. And, if you don’t like the map, feel free to click on it and rearrange blue and red squares to your heart's content.

'Off Brand' vs. 'Re-brand': Jim Talent vs. Claire McCaskill on 'Meet the Press'

MISSOURI– Troubled as the Republicans are in this political moment, they are rarely off brand -- and almost always "on message."

From the Reagan era forward, Republican candidates consistently sought to portray decisiveness, machismo, and down-home straight-talkin' in every campiagn appearance. Always on the offensive, even in the majority, the Republican brand successfully drove home the idea that Republicans were tough on crime, taxes, our enemies, and their Democratic opposition.

Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) has lately become an exception. Frustrated by the traction of a pro-stem cell research initiative in his home state, Talent's performance on "Meet the Press" October 8 was as "off brand" as it gets. Had he stayed true to the overarching Republican identity program, Talent's handlers would have pulled off his granny glasses, pulled the back of his coat tight to his collar -- and forced the senator to respond to Democrat Claire McCaskill's "grandmotherly prosecutor" positioning with complete resolve. Instead, Talent waffled, wiffled, and nervously downed extra coffee on camera, as McCaskill eviscerated his overly-parsed positions on issues ranging from Iraq to Foleygate with good old Missouri straight-talk and common sense.

This is a star turn re-brand for the Democrats, demonstrating the breadth of the party's newfound "big tent" approach to competing in the battlegrond states. But, The Brandwagon has one bit of caution for the charismatic McCaskill: "It's okay to look like a senator -- now that you're a contender." Cop a page out of the Condi Rice playbook and opt for a navy blue power suit over that lavender confection you wore on Russert. For, Mr. Talent, it might be time to consider lasix.

Crewcuts, Crosses, and Cops: Testing the Next Democratic Brand

MONTANA – If the Democrats take over Capitol Hill three weeks from tonight, the pundits will most likely cite the Iraq War, Foleygate, Abramoffgate, and the tepid approval ratings of President Bush and the Congressional Republicans on about four dozen additional issues ranging from the economy to health care as the source of an increasingly Blue political map.

At The Political Brandwagon, we have a slightly different take. All politics being local, we think think that this year's political gestalt represents a weird confluence of "Throw the bums out" national sentiment -- and some very subtle rebranding among Democrats in the vast sea of glowing, Red states and counties from California to South Carolina.

To us, year is all about Crewcuts, Crosses, and Boots -- and the willingness of Blue State Democrats to accept the cultural differences of America's non-urban, non-metropolitan, non-secular land mass. From crew-cutted senate candidate Jon Tester of Montana to pro-lifer Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Indiana Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (IN-08), the brand of the Democratic Party is quietly returning to its populist roots -- and starting let regional differences define its shade of Blue.