The Goreacle: An October Surprise?

NEW YORK – For months, a wide swath of Washington insiders have claimed that the real number to watch in fall 2007 is not necessarily the Democratic polling figures for the New Hampshire, but the circumference of Al Gore's waist. Well, we don't have the digits, but if Vanity Fair's 9-page exposé on the media's "distorted" coverage of Gore's campaign 2000, his "Emmy Awards," and "Tonight Show" appearances are any indication, Gore might just be on a diet.

Of course, this is total conjecture, but with the GOP nomination into a real horse race and the some very split opinions on Sen. Hillary Clinton's Democratic lead, Gore might still be considering an "October Surprise."

"Poppycock," you might exclaim. But, last Sunday's "Full Ginsburg" aside, the press and many influential Democrats might be getting a late case of "Clinton Fatigue." The Los Angeles Times reports that high-ranking Democrats in Montana, Colorado, and Arizona are deeply concerned that the inroads they have made in the last two election cycles are seriously at risk with Clinton as a nominee. At the same time, left-leaning columnist Frank Rich spent much is his Sunday, October 1 New York Times "Week in Review" column pillorying Hillary on her Gore 2000-like evading and equivocating, while Maureen Dowd decries the "Tango of Nepotism" that a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton White House might represent. Even Gail Collins questions the ability of the woman whom Bill Clinton calls "the most gifted person of [his] generation" to provide straight answers to real questions. If this weren't enough, New York delves deeply into the overcautious nature of Sen. Clinton's campaign manager, while Ryan Lizza writes in The New Yorker of the tightrope act involving the promise of Bill Clinton's legacy and the sticky reality of issues like NAFTA. If this is the hometown press, you have to wonder how all of this will play in Ohio.

"This is all fine and dandy, but Sen. Clinton's leading in almost every possible poll, including Iowa. Bill's back in the nation's good graces, and she has the best team of political professionals on her side since, Ronald Reagan. Al Gore ain't gonna waste his sweet time tryin' to 'reinvent' the Democratic nomination," you might declare. And, you'd mostly be right. But, we at the Brandwagon are detecting a subtle shift in the Democratic political winds. It might not be a Category 5, but its definitely a tropical depression. If the water is warm enough, it might just develop into a real hurricane. The question is whether Al Gore wants to ride the waves – or just hunker down for the storm?

Hillary Leads, But Will They Follow?

NEW YORK – It's been a tough week for Sen. Clinton. While Sen. John Edwards is attracting union endorsements like bears to honey, Sen. Obama is collecting the bright lights of Oprah, Broadway, and influential battleground politicos. Worse, both men are probably gloating over the news of her tainted campaign contributors. Now, after six weeks of "All Hillary, all-the-time" press coverage, Sen. Obama has surpassed her news hits, and Edwards has her locked in a virtual tie.

The challenge, however, for both Obama and Edwards is to keep differentiating their messages from each other and from Sen. Clinton, while simultaneously harmonizing on the very real issue of her likability ratings, particularly in the American Heartland. For Edwards this means pounding hard on trade, economic opportunity, and a willingness to fight the status quo on behalf of a truly threatened middle class.

For Obama, this means hammering Sen. Clinton on her record beyond that infamous vote for the war – and demonstrating the need for an outsider to clean up the Capitol.

Wait a minute. Sen. Clinton is the frontrunner. All of this is moot. Right? Not necessarily.
Sen. Clinton came into the race with several major structural advantages. As a sitting senator and the former First Lady, Sen. Clinton has a large corps of loyal supporters anxiously awaiting her turn in the Oval Office, an extraordinarily talented political organization, international name recognition, one of the most successful fundraising machines in U.S. political history, and of course – Bill.

To her campaign’s credit, Hillary for President is running on all twelve cylinders. Right? She’s topping every national and state primary poll. Heck, she’s leading all of the hypothetical head-to-head match-ups with every possible Republican nominee. Clearly, it’s Sen. Clinton’s turn and her campaign needs to start vetting the short lists for her cabinet and settling on a role for the First Gentleman. So what’s the problem?

We see five challenges ahead for Sen. Clinton:

1. Electability. Many Democrats doubt her ability to win the general election. And, with Senators Obama and Edwards each polling significantly higher against the likely Republican nominees, their candidacies are garnering greater attention. Democrats are cognizant that the general election will not be fought on the coast, but in the Purple and Magenta battleground states of America's heartland. Can Hillary win Ohio? And, with so many senate seats in play, who will have longer coattails?
   
2. Labor. In gradually moving her dialog away from the Democratic Leadership Council's traditional orthodoxy of support for relatively unfettered free trade, and criticizing some of Globalization's shortcomings, Sen. Clinton is simultaneously picking up both endorsements – and attracting greater scrutiny for her support of outsourcing. These questions, and rank and file support, have helped Sen. Edwards capture a much larger swath of union endorsements. For, Edwards this means a greater perception of electability, and the ground support needed to remain competitive in both the Democratic primaries and the general election.
   
3. The Base. As Howard Dean knows, an energized base and celebrity endorsements are no guarantee of primary success. But, and this is a big one, in a crowded field, you need an energized base to win the general election. John Kerry may have won the Democratic primaries, but he failed to really energize the base in the general election. Unless something changes, and Hillary is the nominee, Democrats may support her, but she won't have the kind of active base that either Obama or Edwards are sure to attract. If she can't connect to the Base soon, it's going to be tough slogging next September.
   
4. The Economy. With an economy starting to shed jobs, a housing market in free fall, tightening credit, and the possibility of recession, voters of all stripes will be looking for "change." As the most well-known candidate, in either party, Sen. Clinton represents a return to "The Clinton Era" – not "change." And, this is a critical point, The Clinton Era may have seemed "peaceful" from a national security perspective – and prosperous for residents of New Economy Blue States – for working class whites in many Red, Purple and Magenta States, median household income was flat or fell from 1998-2000. For those voters, The Clinton Era may not represent giddiness and good times. It represents outsourcing, Globalization, and plant closings.
   
5. The Brand. Hillary's campaign trying to position her as a model of “Strength and Experience.” The problem with this positioning is that its neither credible, nor differentiating, nor compelling. On the Democratic side, Gov. Richardson, Senators Dodd, Biden, even Mike Gravel and Rep. Kucinich easily surpass Clinton's experience as elected officials. If "experience" was the driver in this election, at least two of them might be frontrunners. On the "strength" side, voting to authorize the invasion of Iraq, is not necessarily a positive. No, to hawkish Americans, the leading Republicans represent “strength" and all of them surpass Clinton in terms of "experience." No. This is an election about "change." Edwards and Obama have branded themselves as change agents, differentiating on this riff only in terms of tenor and direction. While Cokie Roberts adroitly observes that Clinton, as a woman, represents tremendous "change," in and of itself, and that her campaign is trying to diffuse the enormity of this proposition by emphasizing her "strength," we feel that she has lost something in the process – a sense of who Hillary is as a person and a brand. Sen. Clinton's campaign is trying to please so many micro-targeted segments, they may have forgotten to build a compelling narrative about who she really is, how she will change America, and why that matters to the middle class voters in Ohio. Perhaps, they ought to go with her ultimate strength. She's the first woman who might be president – and maybe that is the change voters demand.
   

Thompson Plays Southern-Fried Reagan, But Was He Tall in The Saddle?

BURBANK – Sen. Fred Thompson's turn on the "The Tonight Show" was a fairly effective articulation of his emerging "Southern-Fried Reagan" positioning. Strong, plain-spoken, and clear, Thompson focused on restoring pride in America at home and abroad. Was it a "star turn"? Maybe not. But Thompson successfully conveyed a semi-folksy "aura of authenticity" that ought to resonate with the Republican primaries "values voters," while simultaneously priming the general public with what some might describe as the kind of paternal, comforting personality that often resonates with voters in uncertain times.

For skeptical readers – particularly Democrats – who are unimpressed by Sen. Thompson's qualifications, his age, and his experience, we have two simple words: Ronald Reagan. American Presidential campaigns might include clashes of big ideas -- but, in the end, elections weigh heavily on tests of likability and faith in a candidate to represent their supporters ideals. And, in the primaries, whether party faithful believe that their preferred candidate has the potential to motivate the base, and turn out more moderate and independent voters in the general election.

That said, Thompson's real contribution to the Republican primaries is a positioning that he is the "real conservative" who has fought for and will continue to fight for the traditional American values held dear by the conservative core of the Republican Party, who also has the name recognition to be electable. Romney, Guiliani, and McCain, each possess backgrounds that challenge their abilities to convey a clear enough "aura" to resonate with the GOP's values-oriented core. Thompson's background is somewhat more "authentic."

At the same time, there is a strong argument to be made, particularly by the Guiliani campaign, that "vales" are not, necessarily, the critical driver of this election, that "national security" is, and that only a more socially-moderate Republican candidate can win a general election. And, under this scenario, Guiliani is the only candidate that can put states such as New York, California, Florida, and New Jersey into play. Possible? Yes. Likely" No.

If Thompson can mobilize Republican "values voters" to win the GOP nomination, he has a very reasonable chance of convincing general election voters that he represents a "safe" and "comfortable" choice in very uncertain times. Americans like to talk about "change," but changes requires the acceptance of "risk."

However, if the regional economies in battleground states such as Ohio get bad enough, "change" won't be view as a risk; it will be viewed as a requirement for basic survival. Here, "values" will matter less than "ideas" and Thompson, or any Republican nominee, will have very tough sledding. In order to be effective in this political environment, Thompson's "Southern-Fried Reagan" will have to ride taller in the saddle – and begin to articulate a bold agenda for "Restoring America to greatness." This means a articulating a way to bring jobs to the Heartland – and improving the day-to-day lives of regular Americas. If Sen. Thompson wants to play Ben Cartwright, he'll need to captivate his audiences with substantial blueprint for success.

Crewcuts, Crosses, and Clinton? Hillary's Got Religion

VIRGINIA BEACH – For quite some time, a broad swath of Democratic strategists have been arguing that the Democratic Party and religious faith need not be mutually-exclusive – and that Dems of faith might actually have an advantage in rural and exurban America. Clearly, the Clinton campaign has been paying very close attention.

In what must be one of the more interesting media flourishes of this campaign, or any other, Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody, cites with abandon Kathryn Joyce and Jeff Sharlet's September 1, 2007 Mother Jones article, which details Clinton's long-term involvement with an ultra-elite prayer group known as The Fellowship:

“Clinton's God talk is more complicated—and more deeply rooted—than either fans or foes would have it, a revelation not just of her determination to out-Jesus the GOP, but of the powerful religious strand in her own politics. Over the past year, we've interviewed dozens of Clinton's friends, mentors, and pastors about her faith, her politics, and how each shapes the other. And while media reports tend to characterize Clinton's subtle recalibration of tone and style as part of the Democrats' broader move to recapture the terrain of "moral values," those who know her say there's far more to it than that.

CBN citing Mother Jones? Who would have thunk it. In fact, both pieces reflect exceptionally well on the senator. While the Mother Jones article maintains:

"...[T]he senator's project isn't the conversion of her adversaries; it's tempering their opposition so she can court a new generation of Clinton Republicans, values voters who have grown estranged from the Christian right..."

Brody goes one step further:

"Politically, Hillary Clinton's critics can paint her as a liberal. But there is a resume of material here that portrays her as more moderate than you might think. Sometimes Hillary's critics spend so much time trying to demonize her that the entire picture isn't properly represented."

More importantly, Joyce and Sharlet view Clinton's Fellowship participation as more transcendental than political, opining, "In her own way, she is a true believer."

Clearly, Clinton is already positioning herself for the general election. In the world of political brand-building, the Clinton campaign either hit the trifecta – with props from Mother Jones and CBN all in one day – or it is positioning Clinton for a soft launch as a "Democratic woman of faith." Both sources convey an aura of authenticity about Clinton's recently-discovered positioning. The question is whether Magenta State voters will be able to slice through two decades of the GOP counter-framing Clinton as a "Secular Humanist Ultra-liberal" and take her acts of faith – on faith. Or, more importantly, in the near-term, will liberals, labor, and the Netroots see Sen. Clinton's faith as the margin of victory in the general election of 2008, or validation of a their own fears that the real Hillary Clinton might still a bit too much of a Goldwater Girl to protect their social and economic interests.

The Union Label: Edwards Goes To Work

PITTSBURGH – For savvy Democratic politicians, Labor Day is more than a moment for symbolic expressions of solidarity, marching hand-in-hand with America's unionized workforce. For some, it marks a coronation. For John Edwards, Labor Day 2007 might well be remembered as the day he became a contender.

Armed with the critical Purple State endorsements of the United Steelworkers, the United Mineworkers, and the International Brotherhood of Carpenters Joiners, Sen. John Edwards is well-positioned to both solidify his lead in Iowa and to build his fundraising efforts with the backing of two very high profile union labels. Edwards is no longer just a telegenic one-term senator whose charismatic good-ole-boy grin and trial lawyer patois kept in the game, but forced him to bluff with every hand. Now, he's holding some powerful face cards – and he ain't waitin' for the river.